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스위스 스위스 중앙은행 기준금리 동결-20180621

FOHUNTERS™ FOHUNTERS™
261 0 1
기준금리 -0.75% / -1.25%~-0.25%

예금금리 : -0.75%
3개월 리보금리 :  -1.25% ~ -0.25%

 

Monetary policy assessment of 21 June 2018

 

Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged


The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is maintaining its expansionary monetary policy, thereby stabilising price developments and supporting economic activity. Interest on sight deposits at the SNB remains at −0.75% and the target range for the three-month Libor is unchanged at between −1.25% and −0.25%. The SNB will remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary, while taking the overall currency situation into consideration.

 

All in all, the value of the Swiss franc has barely changed since the monetary policy assessment of March 2018. The currency remains highly valued. Following the March assessment, the Swiss franc initially depreciated slightly against the US dollar and the euro.

 

However, in light of political uncertainty in Italy, we have since seen countermovement, particularly against the euro. The situation on the foreign exchange market thus remains fragile, and the negative interest rate and our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market as necessary therefore remain essential. These measures keep the attractiveness of Swiss franc investments low and ease pressure on the currency.

 

The new conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is slightly higher than it was in March 2018 due to a marked rise in the price of oil; this price rise ceases to affect annual inflation after the first quarter of 2019. From mid-2019, the new conditional forecast is lower than it was in March 2018, mainly due to the muted outlook in the euro area. At 0.9%, the inflation forecast for 2018 is 0.3 percentage points higher than projected at the March assessment. For 2019, the SNB continues to anticipate inflation of 0.9%. For 2020, we expect to see inflation of 1.6%, compared with 1.9% forecast in the last quarter. The conditional inflation forecast is based on the assumption that the three-month Libor remains at –0.75% over the entire forecast horizon.


Berne, 21 June 2018 Press release

 

Overall, global economic growth was solid in the first quarter. Growth in the US and China was strong and broad-based. The pace of economic expansion slowed in the euro area, however, albeit partly due to temporary factors. The economic signals for the coming months remain favourable. The SNB’s baseline scenario therefore assumes that the global economy will continue to grow above its potential.

 

The risks to the SNB’s baseline scenario are more to the downside. Chief among them are political developments in certain countries as well as potential international tensions and protectionist tendencies.

 

Switzerland’s economy continued to recover as expected, with GDP once again growing faster than estimated potential in the first quarter. Overall capacity utilisation improved further on the back of this positive development. The SNB still anticipates GDP growth of around 2% for the current year and expects to see unemployment falling further.

 

Imbalances on the mortgage and real estate markets persist. While growth in mortgage lending has been only moderate over the last few quarters, real estate prices have continued to rise. Particularly in the residential investment property segment, there is the risk of a correction due to the strong increase in prices in recent years. The SNB will continue to monitor developments on the mortgage and real estate markets closely, and will regularly reassess the need for an adjustment of the countercyclical capital buffer.

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[통화정책성명서] https://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20180621/source/pre_20180621.en.pdf
00:40
18.06.22.
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달러인덱스란 세계 주요 6개국 통화 대비 달러화의 평균적인 가치를 나타내는 지표를 의미한다. 주요 6개국에는 유로(EUR), 일본 엔(JPY), 영국 파운드(GBP), 캐나다달러(CAD), 스웨덴 크로네(SEK), 스위스 프랑(CHF)가 포함된다. 기준점은 1973년 3월을 100으로 하고, 미국 연방준비제도위원회에서 발표한다. 각 통화의 비중은 국가경제규모에 비례하여 결정된다. 이 코너는 달러인덱스에 포함되는 국가의 통화와 추가로 유로존과 호주의 금리추이를 살펴 외환시장에 대응하기 위해 위와 같이 선정했다. 달러인덱스 내 비중은 유로 57.6% / 엔 13.6% / 영국 파운드 11.9% / 캐나다 달러 9.1% / 스웨덴 크로나 4.2% / 스위스 프랑 3.6%