• 목록
  • 아래로
  • 위로
  • 쓰기
  • 검색

영국 영란은행 기준금리 동결-20190801

FOHUNTERS™ FOHUNTERS™
86 0 1
기준금리 0.75%

Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting

 

Published on 01 August 2019

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 31 July 2019, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%.

The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion.

Since May, global trade tensions have intensified and global activity has remained soft. This has led to a substantial decline in advanced economies’ forward interest rates and a material loosening in financial conditions, including in the United Kingdom. An increase in the perceived likelihood of a no-deal Brexit has further lowered UK interest rates and led to a marked depreciation of the sterling exchange rate.

Brexit-related developments, such as stockbuilding ahead of previous deadlines, are making UK data volatile. After growing by 0.5% in 2019 Q1, GDP is expected to have been flat in Q2, slightly weaker than anticipated in May. Looking through recent volatility, underlying growth appears to have slowed since 2018 to a rate below potential, reflecting both the impact of intensifying Brexit-related uncertainties on business investment and weaker global growth on net trade.  Evidence from companies, up to the middle of July, suggests that uncertainty over the United Kingdom’s future trading relationship with the European Union has become more entrenched. The labour market remains tight. Annual pay growth has been relatively strong.  Consumer spending has remained resilient. CPI inflation was 2.0% in June and core CPI inflation was 1.8%.  

The Committee’s updated projections are set out in the accompanying August Inflation Report. They continue to assume a smooth adjustment to the average of a range of possible outcomes for the United Kingdom’s eventual trading relationship with the European Union. In the central projection, conditioned on prevailing asset prices, underlying output growth is subdued in the near term, reflecting more entrenched Brexit uncertainties. This means that a margin of excess supply persists over the first year of the projection. Thereafter, GDP is projected to accelerate to robust growth rates, reflecting a gradual recovery in global growth and firming UK domestic demand growth, driven in large part by a recovery in investment growth as uncertainties dissipate in line with the Brexit conditioning assumption. The acceleration in GDP results in a significant build-up of excess demand, to around 1¾% of potential GDP by the end of the forecast period. After falling in the near term, CPI inflation is projected to rise above the 2% target, as building excess demand leads to firmer domestic inflationary pressures. Conditioned on prevailing asset prices, CPI inflation reaches 2.4% by the end of the three-year forecast period.  

These projections are affected by an inconsistency between the smooth Brexit conditioning assumption underpinning the forecast and the prevailing market asset prices on which the forecasts are also conditioned. These asset prices reflect market participants’ perceptions of the likelihood and consequences of a no-deal Brexit.  If, as assumed, Brexit proceeds smoothly to some form of deal, market interest rates would likely rise and the sterling exchange rate would likely appreciate. A more consistent forecast would therefore have somewhat lower paths for GDP growth and CPI inflation.  

Increased uncertainty about the nature of EU withdrawal means that the economy could follow a wide range of paths over coming years. The appropriate path of monetary policy will depend on the balance of the effects of Brexit on demand, supply and the exchange rate. The monetary policy response to Brexit, whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in either direction. In all circumstances, the Committee will set monetary policy appropriately to achieve the 2% inflation target.  

The MPC judges at this meeting that the existing stance of monetary policy is appropriate.

Assuming a smooth Brexit and some recovery in global growth, a significant margin of excess demand is likely to build in the medium term. Were that to occur, the Committee judges that increases in interest rates, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target. 

신고공유스크랩

댓글 1

댓글 쓰기
권한이 없습니다. 로그인
에디터 모드

신고

"님의 댓글"

이 댓글을 신고하시겠습니까?

댓글 삭제

"님의 댓글"

이 댓글을 삭제하시겠습니까?

공유

퍼머링크

주요국 선정기준

달러인덱스란 세계 주요 6개국 통화 대비 달러화의 평균적인 가치를 나타내는 지표를 의미한다. 주요 6개국에는 유로(EUR), 일본 엔(JPY), 영국 파운드(GBP), 캐나다달러(CAD), 스웨덴 크로네(SEK), 스위스 프랑(CHF)가 포함된다. 기준점은 1973년 3월을 100으로 하고, 미국 연방준비제도위원회에서 발표한다. 각 통화의 비중은 국가경제규모에 비례하여 결정된다. 이 코너는 달러인덱스에 포함되는 국가의 통화와 추가로 유로존과 호주의 금리추이를 살펴 외환시장에 대응하기 위해 위와 같이 선정했다. 달러인덱스 내 비중은 유로 57.6% / 엔 13.6% / 영국 파운드 11.9% / 캐나다 달러 9.1% / 스웨덴 크로나 4.2% / 스위스 프랑 3.6%